J6 ALMOST DIDN'T HAPPEN

One Event Could Have Changed Everything

Steve Baker, the fired investigative journalist from The Blaze who is being sued for defamation, has called the J5 pipe bombs, “The fuse that lit January 6^th.” In many respects, he’s more correct than he knows, but not for the reasons he might believe.

In nine previous articles here, I’ve covered how on November 8, 2025, Baker and The Blaze, (and his lower profile co-writer Joe Hanneman,) named a former Capitol police officer, Shauni Kerkhoff, as the person responsible for putting down two pipe bombs on the evening of January 5, 2021. One each around the Democratic National Committee (DNC) headquarters, and near the Republican National Committee (RNC) headquarters.

Baker’s evidence consisted almost exclusively of “gait” analysis done by an anonymous analyst of Ms. Kerkhoff compared to the gray hooded bomber who was captured on grainy video in the area of the Capitol. Baker would go on to claim, without evidence, that Ms. Kerkhoff did this as part of a larger, government-wide “fedsurrection” designed to bait protesters into rioting and give detractors of President Trump ammo to impeach him again and be done with the MAGA movement for good. He’s not the only one who believes this.

Less than a month later, on December 4, 2025, the FBI arrested Brian Cole, Jr for planting the pipe bombs. There was substantial evidence Cole did it including: Cole being the same height as the hooded bomber and wearing square glasses like him; Cole’s car being captured on a license plate reader near the Capitol at the relevant time; Cole’s cell phone pinging several cell towers in the area of the Capitol at the relevant times; Financial and other history of Cole purchasing the exact same materials as those used in the J5 pipe bombs; Bomb making materials being recovered from his home and vehicle during the execution of a search warrant; And the fact Cole confessed to the FBI shortly after he was arrested.

The Blaze corrected their November 8^th story but refused to offer a complete retraction and an apology when Ms. Kerkhoff’s attorneys requested they do so. The Blaze and Baker shifted from naming Ms. Kerkhoff as the pipe bomber, to writing almost exclusively about how they believed Cole was an FBI patsy, without offering any proof about how the government pulled this off. Baker would go on to use that same grainy video of the hooded bomber to find things he thinks exist that prove Cole’s innocence, (shoe sizes and smart watches for example,) or claim that absence of evidence, (hidden gates, blind spots in cameras, etc.) are themselves evidence.

On April 3, 2026, Baker announced on a podcast that he’d been fired by The Blaze two days earlier, and that he’d previously been under a gag order by them prohibiting him from talking about Ms. Kerkhoff. Since then, he has appeared on at least eleven podcasts and other appearances where he has revived his theory that Ms. Kerkhoff is the pipe bomber, and he continues to contend that Brian Cole is a patsy. Weeks later, he and The Blaze were sued by Ms. Kerkhoff for defamation.

Regardless of your politics, it’s inarguable the events of January 6^th were historic. Some people peacefully “trespassed” in the Capitol, but only after they were let in by more violent individuals who broke in. Dozens of police officers were assaulted and injured. Three people outside died of heart attacks. Ashli Babbitt, who was unarmed, was shot and killed by a senior Capitol police officer with a history of among other things, the reckless use of firearms. You can read a critical review of that shooting I wrote about here.

Almost 1,600 people were charged with federal crimes. While some two-thirds of them were charged with misdemeanors, they were spread across the country and became part of the most wide-ranging investigation in the FBI’s history. Tens of thousands of agent-hours were spent investigating the events of J6, and on rounding up J6 defendants.

And if Brian Cole, Jr. was a competent bomb maker, arguably, none of the events of January 6^th would have transpired the way they did. During his confession, Cole admitted that he planted the devices near the Capitol on the evening of J5 using one-hour kitchen timers because he wanted to make a statement about the 2020 election, but he didn’t want anybody to get hurt when they went off.

In an unusual forty-five-minute interview with Fox5 in Washington, D.C. on January 12, 2026, one of Cole’s attorneys, Mario Williams, basically confirmed this, but said he took issue with Cole’s statement being categorized as a “confession.” It was a weird interview where Williams maintained both that Cole was innocent, and that he deserved a pardon for participating in J6-related crimes. You can see it here.

Had one or more of those devices gone off, I think history would have unfolded completely different.

A massive law enforcement response would have descended on the Capitol somewhere around 9:00 PM to 9:30 PM on the 5th. Law enforcement from the Capitol police and D.C. Metro police would have been called in from off duty, as would have hundreds, potentially thousands of federal agents. (The FBI’s Washington Field Office alone has more than 1000 agents.) The National Guard that was the topic of so much post-J6 debate, would have immediately been mobilized.

The Secret Service would have cancelled President Trump’s speech at the ellipse scheduled for 11:00 AM the morning of the 6^th. Which, did not actually start until almost noon on the 6^th. By the time it ended, both devices had already been discovered. The Capitol itself would have been locked down tighter than any Inauguration or other event in history. The seven-foot-tall chain link fencing that was erected on J7, would have been erected by dawn on the 6^th.

WTOP radio would have told people who’d planned to attend the festivities not come to the ellipse or the Capitol. Would some have come anyway? Of course. But nobody who made their way near the Capitol that day would have gotten past the fencing, the National Guard, and law enforcement. Nobody, including Steve Baker, would have been arrested. Ashli Babbitt would not have been shot by Lt. Michael Byrd.

And, to really add a Back to the Future time warp to what might have been, MAGA might not have been as energized as they were in 2024. Yes, immigration, crime, and the economy were on the ballot in the 2024 presidential election. But Kamala Harris only lost by a handful of votes in a couple of critical states that might have gone either way, but for the energy of the J6 crowd. How much of the MAGA 2024 turnout was motivated by the events of J6? We’ll never know.

Ironically, much of the “Free Brian Cole” movement would have been better off had he been a better bomb maker, and the devices he planted at the DNC and RNC went off on the cold, COVID – empty streets of Washington, D.C. the evening of January 5^th when nobody was around to get hurt.

What I’m Working On:

My latest thriller, GRAY GHOST, An Air America - CIA Thriller drops on September 1st. Read about it and Pre-order on Amazon here.

I mentioned this is my tenth column on the J5 pipe bombs since January of 2024. That’s almost 35K words, so I’m going to use that as a launch point for my first non-fiction book about the case. I’m busy pulling together timelines and primary documents, so stay tuned for updates. There are upcoming civil and criminal trials to get through too.

And I’ve teased a secret project I can’t talk about yet, but all will be revealed in time. Doesn’t mean it’s not a lot of work though.

Regards,

F.X.