The Nancy Guthrie Kidnapping

Several Theories

I’ve kept my powder dry about the Nancy Guthrie (NG) kidnapping for a week, and I hope in some respects I still am. In my opinion, the best trait an investigator can have is an open mind until enough facts are in to make a sound conclusion about what happened. I’ve gotten tunnel vision during investigations before, and I’ve seen it in dozens of other cases both from inside and outside my time in law enforcement. That said, what’s going on here?

First, we (outsiders) only know what has been told or leaked to us from law enforcement. Most of the time, they know way more than we do about the facts. But that doesn’t mean they necessarily have it totally figured out yet either.

A week ago we are told NG, the 84 year old mother of NBC News and Today Show host Savannah Guthrie (SG) was kidnapped from her home sometime in the overnight hours of Saturday night into Sunday morning. She supposedly had dinner with her other daughter Annie, (AG, who lives approximately two miles away), and was dropped off back at her home around 9:45 PM. We were told that “friends” became concerned when she didn’t show up for church services the next morning, and family (possibly AG,) was notified. Her family went to her house, became concerned, and notified law enforcement.

We believe the first ransom note arrived at a local Tucson TV station sometime Tuesday, about 48 hours after NG disappeared. The note allegedly contained details only the kidnappers would know, like where NG’s Apple Watch (left behind) was in the residence. It also demanded two amounts be paid, $4M by last Friday, or $6M by Monday, (2/9,) in bitcoin. Again - none of this has been verified to us by law enforcement. SG, AG, and her brother have put out three video statements asking for proof of life, and for kidnappers to return NG.

A second ransom note was received Friday but we are less certain of the details therein, except it reportedly does not contain proof of life.

Other details you might know about the early morning NG disappearance:

An outdoor Nest camera was removed sometime around midnight. An image was recorded (but not recovered on another camera - no further details.) Approximately 25 minutes later NG’s pacemaker stopped communicating with her iPhone and/or Apple Watch. (Indicating she was moved far enough away that Bluetooth stoped working.) NG has a heart condition and requires daily medication.

NG’s blood was recovered on a doorstep leading the sheriff to conclude she was injured before being removed from the property.

Let’s back up and look at holes in the scenario that don’t add up.

We’re told that NG went to AG’s home two miles away Saturday evening for “a dinner” via Uber. Initially I assumed they had dinner out, but I’ve heard reports that dinner was at AG’s home. In any case, who has their mother take an Uber two miles to their house? Why not go get her? Then family, assuming AG, took her home around 9:45 PM. Some news outlets, without evidence are pointing to AG’s husband as a potential subject.

Next is the report of concerns NG didn’t show up for church services. Two points; even among the most regular of church-goers, who among them doesn’t occasionally miss a service? Causing immediate enough concern to contact family members that morning? Then we hear, (not confirmed) that since Covid, NG has attended church services only online. And the online system doesn’t capture who is online with the church live at the time. If true, how did somebody contact NG’s family so soon to express concern she was not at the service, live or online?

The ransom notes:

I’ve heard, including from fellow former FBI agents, that the ransom notes might be separate from whatever actually happened to NG. That scammers, possibly overseas, are exploiting the situation and attempting to have SG, who has substantial wealth, pay them. This is entirely possible especially since the first note didn’t come for 48 hours, which seems like a long time into the kidnap, especially for a victim with a heart condition requiring daily medication.

The problem with this scenario is the claim in the note to have known where the Apple Watch inside NG’s residence was located. That points to someone who was either there that night, or knows where she regularly keeps her Apple Watch. (Or a good guess, like “On the nightstand next to the bed.”) Another theory is that the ransom notes are merely a diversion by whoever hurt or took NG to keep law enforcement off balance. This is entirely possible too.

Let’s considered what might have happened. I’ll tell you what I think is most likely to least likely. Keeping in mind I’m willing to be 100% wrong as more facts emerge.

1. NG was murdered before Sunday morning, (perhaps at AG’s home,) and everything else since then is covering for that murder. This probably involves either a family member or other person close to her, and is personal, not an attempt to get money. I consider this highly possible.

2. Closely related, NG was taken from her home by a family member or someone who knew her, probably injured, shortly after midnight on Sunday, and was either killed or has died. Everything else is covering for her death. Including the ransom notes. This is highly possible.

3. Same as 2. above except the motive was financial and still involved family members. The ransom notes are related. This is possible.

4. Same as 2. above except the ransom notes are not part of the coverup, they are a separate scam by criminals taking advantage of the situation. This is highly possible.

5. NG was kidnapped as part of a legit kidnap/ransom scheme by strangers who hoped to ransom her to her family for money. She has probably since died, but maybe not. This is possible.

6. We have heard nothing about health care workers, maids, or pool cleaners, but she has a large house. Are there regular workers who have knowledge of her and her daughter SG’s fame and wealth, who took her? The ransom notes are related to this. This is possible.

7. NG was kidnapped after a botched burglary/robbery attempt and has probably died. The kidnappers escaped, maybe to Mexico and the ransom notes are unrelated scammers. This is possible, barely.

8. Same as number 5/6., but the kidnappers went ahead with the ransom notes after she died. This is not likely.

There might be other scenarios I have not thought of but you get the point. It is far from certain what happened to Nancy Guthrie a week ago.

A quick word about the media and notoriety in this case. I’ve seen complaints on social media that this case is getting too much attention, and some think their own loved ones would not get the same kind of attention from the media and law enforcement. On the first, the media, they are right. That’s is probably a good thing because in the aggregate, they are more of a distraction than a help.

Concerning law enforcement, in ninety percent of jurisdictions, yes, you would get a robust response to what looks like a legitimate kidnapping. You would definitely get an FBI response. I’ve worked everything from the threatened kidnap of a CEOs daughter (pay ahead off time or else,) to one that took two years to resolve. We arrested the bad guy in the first before any kidnap, and sadly the victim in the latter was found dead. Both were cases that got local media attention, but a significant law enforcement response. So would your loved one’s.

This is the point where in less serious articles I promote what I am working on, but I’ll leave that for another time.

F.X.